Last weekend in the NFL was challenging for some of the week’s biggest favorites.
The Bills were upset (and blown out) by the Dolphins, while the Panthers struggled in the unfamiliar role of favorites, as they fell to the Saints.
The Broncos and Colts were also sizable favorites, as they squeaked out victories but did not cover the point spreads.
What’s in store for this week? Let’s take a look at some potential upsets — one in college football and one in the NFL.
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Penn State @ Michigan State
I wrote a betting preview last week for the Indiana vs. Penn State game, and I picked Penn State plus the points, with the belief that the Nittany Lions would embrace the role of spoiler and put forth a strong effort in what is a lost season.
While they nearly pulled off the outright upset, losing via a last-second touchdown, I’m not sure if we see that same enthusiasm this week against Michigan State.
Last week, the Nittany Lions had a chance to play an undefeated, No. 2 Indiana team, and they were up for the task.
What’s really at stake this week?
Just over a month ago, PSU had dreams of returning to the College Football Playoff and was one of the favorites to win it all. Now that all of those hopes have been crushed, are the Nittany Lions really going to go on the road and play inspired football against a team that isn’t playing for much itself?
I thought they would have a great effort and a solid performance last week; I’m skeptical they can duplicate that intensity this week. I think the Spartans not only cover the number but pull off the outright upset.
PICK: Michigan State (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
Seahawks @ Rams
Seahawks’ quarterback Sam Darnold finds himself in a similar position to the one he was in last year.
Last season, Darnold led the Vikings to a 14-3 season, but that was only good enough for a wild-card spot. This year, Darnold is again leading one of the better teams in the league and, once again, his squad is no lock to even secure a division title.
However, a win against the Rams this week would go a long way toward capturing the NFC West.
The Seahawks have been elite on both offense and defense, but it is their special teams that I think gives them the edge in this matchup. According to the well-respected metric DVOA, the Seahawks are second in the league in special teams, while the Rams are 23rd.
Los Angeles recently demoted its kicker, Josh Karty, who is only 10-for-15 on field goals this year and has missed three extra points. Seahawks kicker Jason Myers, on the other hand, is 17-for-21 on field goals and a perfect 32-for-32 on extra points.
Seattle has the best point differential in the NFC, having outscored opponents by 105 points so far this season. With a decided advantage in special teams, I think the Seahawks get a statement win in L.A. and take a big step toward landing the top seed in the NFC.
PICK: Seahawks (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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