It was an exciting and chaotic Week 11 Sunday in the NFL, with five teams winning on the final play of the game via field goals.
The Dolphins, Panthers, Texans, Bears and Broncos all made kicks to secure their respective victories. The Seahawks had a 61-yard attempt sail wide, on a kick that would have won the game for them as well.
A fun NFL weekend saw just a few small upsets, but underdogs did go 8-5 against the spread (ATS), with four ‘dogs winning outright.
Let’s look ahead to this week and find a team in both college football and the NFL that might be poised to pull off an upset.
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No. 23 Missouri @ No. 11 Oklahoma
Oklahoma got a statement win on Saturday, beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa to give the Sooners an inside track to a spot in the College Football Playoff.
But before the Sooners can punch their ticket, they have to deal with a feisty Missouri team.
Mizzou profiles well as an underdog, with its ability to run the ball while keeping the clock and the chains moving. Running back Ahmad Hardy is one of the nation’s best and is coming off a dominating 25-carry, 300-yard night in a win over Mississippi State.
While the Oklahoma defense likely won’t yield nearly that production, the OU offense is not one that has the firepower to win by margin. In the upset over Alabama, the Sooners only gained 204 yards on offense, with a modest four yards per play, scoring 10 points off of a fumbled punt and an interception returned for a touchdown.
OU has an elite defense and is two wins away from a return to the CFP. However, coming down after the high of a big win and getting past a talented Missouri team will not be easy. Look for the underdog to hang around in this one as it tries to play spoiler.
PICK: Missouri (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points or win outright
Steelers @ Bears
Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin has typically thrived in the role of underdog and will have a chance to add to that reputation Sunday against the surprising Bears.
Chicago is now 7-3 and appears to be on its way to the playoffs.
While it’s been an outstanding run for the Bears, their success seems unsustainable, based on how turnover-dependent they have been. In 10 games, they have generated 22 takeaways and are a remarkable +16 in turnover differential.
We’re not sure who is going to be under center for the Steelers, but if Aaron Rodgers can’t go, backup Mason Rudolph has proven to be serviceable. Winning his last four regular-season games for Pittsburgh, Rudolph helped get the Steelers into the 2023 playoffs and played well for the injured Rodgers on Sunday in a win over the Bengals.
The Bears haven’t won a playoff game since 2011 and after an 0-2 start, they are looking to give themselves a chance to break that streak. But with Tomlin’s prowess as an underdog and the Bears’ turnover luck likely to dry up at some point, I’m backing the Steelers on Sunday.
PICK: Steelers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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