Sabtu Siang Besar: Apakah Ini Pertahanan Negara Bagian Ohio Sepanjang Masa? Bisakah Illinois Mengikuti?

The spotlight doesn’t get much brighter than “Big Noon Saturday” in Champaign, Illinois.

No. 17 Illinois hosts top-ranked Ohio State as a heavy underdog, staring down a Buckeyes team that’s unbeaten, elite on defense, and increasingly locked in on a return to the College Football Playoff.

The Buckeyes have held opponents to single digits in all five games and enter the weekend allowing just 5 points per game — best in the country. That’s bad news for an Illinois offense still searching for consistency behind quarterback Luke Altmyer, who is looking to prove himself against elite competition.

For Ohio State, this is another chance to make a statement in front of a national audience. For Illinois, it’s about finding out just how far away it still is from contending in the Big Ten’s upper tier.

FOX Sports college football writers RJ Young and Michael Cohen break down this weekend’s “Big Noon Saturday” showdown between Ohio State and Illinois.

1. Ohio State’s defense is putting up historic numbers this season, allowing just 5 points per game and holding all five of its opponents to 9 points or fewer. What do you need to see before we can begin the discussion of where this defense ranks among the greatest in Big Ten history?

RJ Young: I started this conversation two weeks ago. Looking back, I wouldn’t change anything about my opinion of Ohio State’s defense after it held Minnesota to just three points, improving their scoring defense by 0.5 points per game.

The Buckeyes are flirting with becoming the best defense since Alabama in 2011. That Crimson Tide team allowed a salty 8.2 points per game en route to a national title — and Ohio State has been even better. The Buckeyes are allowing just 5 points per game, haven’t surrendered a touchdown in the red zone all season, and have held every opponent to nine points or fewer.

“They’re holding opponents to 5 points, so Washington did a good job scoring one more point than what they’re averaging,” Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck said ahead of his team’s matchup against Ohio State. “That’s an above-average performance.”

I don’t think he knew how right he was. 

Illinois would be wise to consider what it truly means to go up against the most dominant defense of the Bret Bielema era.

Head coach Bret Bielema of the Illinois Fighting Illini is seen after the game against the Purdue Boilermakers. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Michael Cohen: As things currently stand, one week into October and with more than half of the season still to play, there are diverging truths about the Ohio State defense, which enters this week’s matchup with Illinois ranked first in scoring (5 points per game) and third overall (215.8 yards per game), trailing only Oklahoma (193 yards per game) and Missouri (203.8 yards per game). 

The first truth — the one that steers Ohio State into this discussion about potentially being the greatest unit in Big Ten history — is formed when considering everything the Buckeyes are doing well under first-year defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, whose adaptation to the college game following two decades in the NFL now seems wildly overblown. 

Patricia, 50, is overseeing a unit that performs with remarkable precision and efficiency, especially considering the complexity of what he’s asking players to do. There are changes to the defensive front on seemingly every play. There are breathtakingly athletic linebackers whose pre-snap alignments and post-snap responsibilities paint contrasting pictures for opposing quarterbacks. There are defensive backs shifting seamlessly between coverages thanks in large part to the wide-ranging talents and organizational skills of safety Caleb Downs, the single best defender in college football. 

Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia of the Ohio State Buckeyes enters Ohio Stadium prior to a game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)

For all of those things to be happening at once, and then repeatedly over the course of each game, without so much as a whiff of miscommunication or disorganization speaks to how effectively Patricia and the staff have worked in a few short months together. That there is still plenty of time for the Buckeyes to improve between now and the College Football Playoff, for which they seem destined, should be a frightening proposition for the sport at large. 

But there’s also another truth — the glass-half-empty truth — that suggests the Buckeyes’ defense has looked exceptional against largely unimpressive competition thus far, especially when considering both the quality of opposing offenses and the experience levels of those teams’ quarterbacks. 

Entering Week 7, there are three Big Ten programs ranked among the top 10 in both scoring offense and total offense: USC, which is second in total offense and third in scoring offense; Indiana, which is fifth in total offense and fourth in scoring offense; and Oregon, which is ninth in total offense and sixth in scoring offense. The Buckeyes have not — and will not — face any of them during the regular season, such is the friendly nature of Ohio State’s conference schedule. Instead, they’ve beat up on teams that look like this: 

Texas: 52nd in total offense, 63rd in scoring offense with a first-year starting quarterback

Ohio: 58th in total offense, 83rd in scoring offense with a second-year starting quarterback

Washington: 32nd in total offense, 16th in scoring offense with a first-year starting quarterback

Minnesota: 91st in total offense, 79th in scoring offense with a first-year starting quarterback

In other words, both truths about Ohio State’s defense point in opposite directions: Yes, all signs suggest that the Buckeyes are among the best defenses in recent memory, if not longer. But it’s also factual to say that the Buckeyes won’t face an elite Power-4 offense with an experienced quarterback any time soon, perhaps not until the Big Ten title game or College Football Playoff. So let’s reserve historical judgment for a little while longer. 

2. Illinois QB Luke Altmyer is coming off a career game and earned massive praise from head coach Bret Bielema following his performance against Purdue, but can Illinois generate enough offense against this Buckeye defense to make this a close game?

Michael Cohen: As of Tuesday morning, oddsmakers had pegged Ohio State as 14.5-point favorites over the Illini, which suggests that even the sharpest of gambling minds don’t expect this game to be particularly close. And a glance at some of the underlying numbers for Illinois’ offense — especially the ones coaches most often cite as reasons for winning and losing games — make it easy to understand how they arrived at that conclusion. 

— Consider Illinois’ third-down conversion rate, which sits at a lowly 39.1% through six games. That places head coach Bret Bielema’s team outside the top 80 nationally and 14th in the Big Ten, leading only UCLA (38.5%), Wisconsin (37.3%), Michigan State (36.7%) and Maryland (36.5%) in that category. 

— Consider Illinois’ red zone touchdown rate, which sits at a meager 59.1% thus far. That places Bielema’s team at No. 90 nationally and 13th in the Big Ten, leading only UCLA (57.1%), Minnesota (54.6%), Northwestern (53.3%), Purdue (50%) and Maryland (42.9%) in that category. 

— Consider Illinois’ average gain when rushing the football, which sits at a lowly 3.7 yards per carry entering Saturday’s game. That number sits 109th in the national rankings and 14th in the Big Ten, leading only Rutgers (3.6 yards per carry), Purdue (3.5 yards per carry), Maryland (3.3 yards per carry) and Wisconsin (3.1 yards per carry) in that category. 

— Consider Illinois’ turnover margin of plus-7 after creating 10 takeaways and only giving the ball away three times. This is a stellar number that ranks tied for fifth nationally and tied for first in the Big Ten, sharing that spot with Maryland. 

When taken together, all of those metrics suggest that Saturday’s showdown in Champaign should be a difficult one for Illinois. Bielema’s team might well avoid the kinds of costly mistakes that lead to self-inflicted wounds, but the offense isn’t nearly efficient enough to keep pace with high-flying Ohio State. The Buckeyes are likely to roll. 

Luke Altmyer #9 and Aidan Laughery #21 of the Illinois Fighting Illini celebrate after the touchdown in the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

RJ Young: Anything is possible, but this seems improbable, as Michael has outlined in his analysis above. It’s hard to feel optimistic about Altmyer’s chances of being successful in this matchup, especially given that he hasn’t played well against top 10 opponents. Against Indiana earlier this year, he completed 14 of 22 passes for 146 yards with a TD, which paled in comparison to the two 300-yard multi-touchdown passing performances he’s put up since that time. 

But, once again, neither USC nor Purdue were ranked in the top 10 when they faced Illinois. Even going back to last season, Altmyer has struggled against top-10 opponents. He went 16-of-25 for 185 yards with a touchdown and an interception against No. 9 Penn State, and 17-of-35 for 161 yards with two interceptions against No. 1 Oregon.

In fact, Altmyer has thrown for 200 or more yards just twice in eight career games against AP Top 25 opponents. Saturday’s matchup figures to be another uphill battle for the Illini.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him @RJ_Young.

Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him @Michael_Cohen13.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!